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BTC Supply Shock Model

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Market Regime

Current conditions. Base absorption rate, stable exchange float.

Treasury Holdings

LIVE
Strategy (MSTR)
�
confirmed holdings
All Other Corporates
�
ex-Strategy total
Strategy � Project Future Purchases
?? Floor locked at confirmed holdings
720k
H_strategy (total projected) 720k BTC
720k (now)1.2M
STRC annual buy rate 50k BTC/yr
0200k/yr
? STRC rate feeds into ?H_year (absorption), not current H_sink.
STRC-funded buys are already counted in Strategy's confirmed total above.
H_other (override) �
200k900k
? Defaults to live API value. Adjust to account for reporting lag or private holdings.

ETF Holdings

LIVE
H_etf (total holdings) 1.29M BTC
775k1.81M
? Defaults to live CoinGecko ETF holdings. Adjust only to model lag or scenario drift.
h_etf (stickiness) 0.78
0.50 (stress floor)0.90

Supply & Exchange Float (CoX)

S_lost 4.0M BTC
3.0M5.0M
CoX Three-Scenario Range (M BTC)
-d(CoX)/dt 30k BTC/mo
0100k/mo

Absorption & Elasticity

?H_year (base, ex-STRC) 750k BTC/yr
400k1.1M
Total ?H_year = base + STRC rate (shown in results)
e ColdFloat elasticity 0.005
0.0010.015
Projected price move post R=1 +50%
0%+300%
S_eff
�
Effective supply (M BTC)
H_sink
�
Total HODL sink (k BTC)
ColdFloat
�
Off-exchange buffer (M)
D(t)
�
Supply concentration
?H_year (adj.)
�
Regime-adjusted (k/yr)
ETF Sticky BTC
�
h_etf � H_etf (k BTC)
R(t) = H_sink / CoX Shock threshold R = 1.0 ?
Bull CoX
� �
Base CoX
� �
Bear CoX
� �
Time to R = 1.0 � Shock Milestone
Bull CoX �
�
Base CoX �
�
Bear CoX �
�
ShockScore (base CoX) �
0.0000
Inactive � R < 1.0
ColdFloat Refill at Projected Price Move
ColdFloat available buffer �
Estimated CoX refill at +50% �
New CoX (base) after refill �
R(t) after refill (base) �
Data sources: Strategy and corporate treasury holdings via CoinGecko public API. ETF holdings auto-load from CoinGecko ETF treasury data when available and fall back to the latest cached/manual baseline. CoX data remains manual � cross-reference Glassnode, CryptoQuant, CoinGlass.

STRC note: STRC-funded purchases are included in Strategy's confirmed total above. The STRC rate slider projects additional future annual capacity from the STRC capital pipeline feeding into ?H_year. Partially decoupled from BTC price cycles (50% regime sensitivity vs 100% for ETF/equity components).

Revised framework March 2026 � Built for scenario analysis � Not financial advice.