Fetching live treasury data...

BTC Supply Shock Model

Open Model Docs
Live Treasury Data
Fetching...
⚠ Could not fetch live corporate treasury data — using fallback values. ETF holdings use the maintained reference baseline.
Current model outlook

Where the supply pressure stands now

The headline view uses the Base exchange-float scenario. Adjust the quick assumptions below to see the outlook update immediately.

Supply status
Loading
Calculating R against the 1.000 threshold
Base milestone
Calculating
Bull-to-Bear range loading
ShockScore (Base)
0.0000
Calculating pressure
Model-implied clearing price to R = 1.0
Bull CoX Calculating —
Base CoX Calculating —
Bear CoX Calculating —
Price needed to restore model balance · scenario output, not a forecast

Quick Scenario

Start with the assumptions that most directly move the milestone. Specialist inputs remain available below.
Market environment
Current conditions. Base absorption rate, stable exchange float.
BTC available on exchanges
Annual structural buying
Preferred capital pipelines
Advanced assumptions Holdings overrides, ETF stickiness, Bull/Bear exchange float, elasticity and refill mechanics.

Treasury Holdings

LIVE
Strategy (MSTR)
—
confirmed holdings
Strive (ASST / SATA)
21.4k BTC
confirmed holdings
Other Corporates
—
ex-Strategy and ex-Strive total
Strategy — Project Future Purchases
🔒 Floor locked at confirmed holdings
720k
H_strategy (total projected) 720k BTC
720k (now)1.2M
STRC annual buy rate 50k BTC/yr
0200k/yr
↑ STRC rate feeds into ΔH_year (absorption), not current H_sink.
STRC-funded buys are already counted in Strategy's confirmed total above.
Strive // SATA perpetual preferred
SATA annual buy rate 15k BTC/yr
075k/yr
↑ Neutral working assumption: 15k BTC/yr. Strive held 21,356 BTC on 21 Aug 2026 after buying 1,110 BTC in one week. Existing holdings feed H_sink; this slider adds only future SATA-funded absorption.
H_other (override) —
200k900k
↑ Defaults to live API value. Adjust to account for reporting lag or private holdings.

ETF Holdings

BASELINE
H_etf (total holdings) 1.29M BTC
775k1.81M
↑ Starts from the maintained 1.29M BTC reference baseline. Adjust to the latest verified ETF total when needed.
h_etf (stickiness) 0.78
0.50 (stress floor)0.90

Supply & Exchange Float (CoX)

S_lost 4.0M BTC
3.0M5.0M
CoX Three-Scenario Range (M BTC)
-d(CoX)/dt 30k BTC/mo
0100k/mo

Absorption & Elasticity

Annual structural BTC buying 750k BTC/yr
400k1.1M
Total ΔH_year = base + STRC rate + SATA rate (shown in results)
e ColdFloat elasticity 0.005
0.0010.015
Projected price move post R=1 +50%
0%+300%
S_eff
—
Effective supply (M BTC)
H_sink
—
Total HODL sink (k BTC)
ColdFloat
—
Off-exchange buffer (M)
D(t)
—
Supply concentration
ΔH_year (adj.)
—
Regime-adjusted (k/yr)
ETF Sticky BTC
—
h_etf × H_etf (k BTC)
R(t) = H_sink / CoX Shock threshold R = 1.0 ▶
Bull CoX
— —
Base CoX
— —
Bear CoX
— —
Time to R = 1.0 — Shock Milestone From today
Bull CoX —
—
Base CoX —
—
Bear CoX —
—
SATA incremental effect
Current Strive holdings in H_sink 21.4k BTC
SATA contribution to annual absorption +15k BTC/yr
STRC + SATA preferred pipeline 65k BTC/yr
Bear CoX milestone impact —
Model-implied clearing price to R = 1.0
H_sink held fixed. The required price rise is inferred from ε-driven ColdFloat refill. This is a scenario output, not a target or forecast.
LOADING
Fetching BTCUSD...
US$
ScenarioR nowRise to R=1Clearing priceStatus
Bull CoX———Loading
Base CoX———Loading
Bear CoX———Loading
Reset assumes no further H_sink growth during the move. Ongoing STRC, SATA, ETF or treasury absorption would require a larger move. ε = 0.005 is a cycle midpoint, not a live estimate.
ColdFloat Refill at Projected Price Move
ColdFloat available buffer —
Estimated CoX refill at +50% —
New CoX (base) after refill —
R(t) after refill (base) —
Data sources: Strategy and corporate treasury holdings use CoinGecko's public treasury API. BTCUSD uses CoinGecko's simple-price endpoint with its last-updated timestamp and a local cached fallback. Strive fallback holdings and SATA issuance context use Strive's 24 Aug 2026 SEC filing (holdings as of 21 Aug). ETF holdings use a maintained 1,287,494 BTC reference baseline because CoinGecko's treasury endpoint covers companies and governments, not ETF aggregates. CoX data remains manual — cross-reference Glassnode, CryptoQuant, CoinGlass.

STRC note: STRC-funded purchases are included in Strategy's confirmed total above. The STRC rate slider projects additional future annual capacity from the STRC capital pipeline feeding into ΔH_year. STRC and SATA use the preferred-capital regime multiplier: 115% in Bull, 100% in Neutral and 75% in Risk-Off.

SATA note: Strive's confirmed BTC is separated from other corporates when the API identifies it, preventing double-counting. The 15k BTC/yr default is a neutral scenario assumption, not Strive guidance. Adjust the slider to test different issuance and accumulation rates.

Clearing-price note: The model holds H_sink fixed and inverts the selected ε assumption to estimate the price rise required for ColdFloat refill to restore R to 1.0. At R = 1.0, ShockScore returns to zero. This is not a target, prediction or fair-value estimate.

Revised framework August 2026 · Built for scenario analysis · Not financial advice.